New Trade Regulations in January 2026 | A Complete Reshuffle of Cross-Border Parcels, Steel Exports, Lithium Battery Transportation, and Port and Shipping Policies – A Must-Read for Import and Export Companies

A Comprehensive Analysis of New Global Trade Regulations in 2026: A Survival Guide and Strategic Opportunities for Import and Export Enterprises

At the beginning of 2026, the global trade landscape is undergoing a major adjustment. According to the latest forecast from the World Trade Organization, global trade growth will fluctuate by 0.5-0.8%, and data from the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce shows that approximately 68% of Chinese export companies will be directly affected by the policy adjustments in many countries. For those deeply involved in international trade, understanding and effectively utilizing these new regulations will be key to their success in 2026. Recommended reading: Is B2B foreign trade still viable? Six structural truths about B2B overseas expansion in 2026!

I. Reshaping the Global Tariff Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges

Global tariff adjustments in 2026 will exhibit a "two-way divergence" characteristic, with both proactive measures by countries like China to reduce import costs in key sectors, and trade barriers erected by countries like Mexico and Japan to protect their domestic industries. This divergence necessitates that companies develop sophisticated market strategies.

1. China lowers tariffs: 935 commodities benefit from policy dividends.

Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement provisional import tariff rates lower than the most-favored-nation (MFN) rates on 935 commodities. This adjustment will directly impact approximately 3.2 trillion yuan in import trade. Notably, tariff reductions of 15-25% are expected for key materials in high-end manufacturing, such as precision speed reducers and photoresist dispersions , providing a cost advantage for the upgrading of China's manufacturing sector. Simultaneously, import costs for energy and resource products, such as crude oil and natural gas, are projected to decrease by 8-12%, saving related industries approximately 42 billion yuan in procurement costs annually.

2. Mexican tariff barriers: 1,463 types of goods face additional tariffs of 10-50%.

Mexico has imposed tariffs on 1,463 types of goods from countries without free trade agreements, including China, South Korea, and India. The average tariff rate for textiles and apparel has increased to 25%, while electronic products have seen increases of 15-30%. According to estimates by the Mexican Ministry of Economy, this policy will raise the prices of related imported goods by 18-35%, and is expected to impact Chinese exports to Mexico by approximately $8.5 billion. Affected companies need to reassess their trade strategies with Mexico and may consider re-exporting through third countries, localizing production , or developing high-value-added products to cope with the situation.

3. The era of small-amount duty-free shopping in Asia comes to an end: China, Japan, and Thailand simultaneously tighten their policies.

Japan and Thailand almost simultaneously abolished their tax-free policies for small-value goods, significantly impacting the cross-border e-commerce industry. With Japan eliminating the consumption tax exemption for imported goods under 10,000 yen, operating costs for Chinese sellers are expected to increase by 30-50%. Meanwhile, Thailand's policy of imposing a 10% tariff plus a 7% VAT on all imported goods will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of cross-border e-commerce. Data shows that Chinese sellers account for 90% of Japan's small-value import market, and this policy adjustment may lead to approximately 20% of small and medium-sized sellers exiting the market.

II. Enhanced Import and Export Controls: Compliance Becomes the Bottom Line for Enterprises' Survival

Global trade regulation is expected to tighten across the board in 2026, with new regulations such as the EU's carbon border tax and the US ban on seafood imports creating a more complex trade compliance system. Companies must adopt a "compliance-first" operational mindset, or they will face significant risks.

1. EU CBAM fully implemented: Carbon costs included in trade accounting

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially entered full operation on January 1, 2026, covering five major industries: steel, cement, fertilizer, aluminum, and electricity. According to the European Commission's calculations, this mechanism will increase the cost of related imported goods by 12-20%. It is worth noting that the CBAM will be implemented in phases: a 10% carbon cost will be paid in 2026, and full collection will begin in 2029. This policy will affect approximately $56 billion in global exports to the EU, with Chinese steel companies expected to see their export costs increase by 15-18%.

2. Many countries strengthen regulations: from product safety to foreign exchange controls

Japan has implemented a dual regulatory framework of METI compliance and new taxation rules, requiring e-commerce platforms to conduct rigorous safety certification reviews of imported goods. Indonesia, meanwhile, mandates that 100% of large foreign exchange earnings from forestry and fishery exporters remain domestically, a policy expected to impact approximately $2.8 billion in annual exports. Saudi Arabia has updated its SABER platform customs codes; failure to do so could result in cargo delays and daily demurrage charges of approximately 0.3-0.5% of the cargo's value.

II. Cross-border e-commerce ushers in the "Year of Compliance": The global small-amount tax exemption policy ends.

2026 can be considered the "Year of Compliance" for cross-border e-commerce. Major markets such as the EU, Japan, Thailand, and Mexico simultaneously abolished tax-free policies for small parcels, marking the end of the era of unchecked growth for cross-border e-commerce. According to industry estimates, these policy adjustments will increase the overall operating costs of Chinese cross-border e-commerce companies by an average of 25-40%.

The changes in the EU market are particularly significant. Not only has the tariff exemption for parcels under €150 been eliminated, but a tariff of 5-12%, an average VAT of 21%, and a fixed handling fee of €2 per item will also be levied. This combination of measures will significantly weaken the price advantage of cross-border e-commerce, and it is estimated that approximately 15-20% of small and medium-sized sellers will face the risk of market exit.

Faced with this new situation, successful cross-border e-commerce companies are adopting three major strategies: increasing the average order value above the policy threshold (e.g., €150 in the EU market), establishing local warehousing and distribution networks , and developing high-value-added customized products . According to industry research, companies that have implemented localized operations are 40-60% less affected by the policy impact, significantly outperforming pure cross-border models.

III. Corporate Response Strategies: From Passive Adaptation to Proactive Planning

1. Market diversification: mitigating policy risks

Over-reliance on a single market amplifies the risks associated with policy changes. It is recommended that companies establish a combined strategy of "core markets + emerging markets," keeping the sales share of key markets below 40%. For example, textile companies affected by Mexican tariffs could consider expanding into free trade agreement countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh, where exports to Mexico enjoy zero-tariff treatment.

2. Product structure upgrading: Overcoming trade barriers

Faced with increasingly stringent import controls, increasing product added value is the fundamental solution. Data shows that high-tech electromechanical products are 30-50% less affected by tariff barriers than ordinary consumer goods. Enterprises can increase R&D investment to develop products that meet the high-end needs of target markets, such as low-energy appliances for the EU market and green building materials that meet US environmental standards.

3. Building compliance capabilities: reducing operational risks

Global trade compliance complexity is projected to increase by 35-45% by 2026, making it imperative for companies to establish professional compliance teams. It is recommended to focus on three key areas: product certification (e.g., EU CE, US FDA), tax compliance (e.g., Japan's JCT, EU's IOSS), and environmental standards (e.g., EU carbon footprint requirements). According to professional organizations, a robust compliance system can reduce policy risk losses for companies by 30-50%.

Appendix: New Trade Rules Effective January 2026

The new global trade regulations of 2026 present both challenges and opportunities. Companies that can quickly adapt to policy changes and accurately grasp market trends will be well-positioned in the new global trade landscape. It is recommended that companies establish a quarterly policy tracking mechanism and conduct strategic assessments and adjustments every six months to ensure they remain competitive in the dynamically changing international market.